Izzy Really Worth It?

The AFL signing of rugby league star Israel Folau - let's separate fact from fiction.

Fact 1. This is a masterstroke for the AFL in its bid to stake a claim in western Sydney.

Fact 2. The reported money Folau will make from the switch is money well spent.

Fiction 1. Israel Folau will be a huge star in his new code.

Fiction 2. As a player, he is worth the reported $1 million-plus per annum earnings.


So how does fact and fiction one and two add up the real thing? Well it goes like this.

It's a coup for the AFL because of the positive impact it has on showcasing the code in a league-dominated region. Already it has created massive headlines.

Now, headlines in isolation don't equate to much. But publicity for the AFL is just what is needed for long-term benefits, in encouraging youngsters to grab a Sherrin in favour of the established league and union pathways.

But the fiction part is considerable. As great an athlete as he is, Israel Folau is destined to be little more than an average AFL player - at best. Yes, he can jump and yes, he can catch - or 'mark', as he'll now need to do in AFL. There's much more, however, to AFL than jumping and marking. More also than his yet to be acquired skills of kicking and handpassing.

These things can be learned. What can not be learned is instinct. Understanding a game which is multi-dimensional compared to the forward combat of league. And kicking, marking, handpassing, knocking forward at pace. Disposing of the ball in a split-second to avoid being penalised for holding the ball, rather than the keeping-possession discipline required of the six-tackle game.

Don't get me wrong. Most league stars could be successful on the AFL stage, but only
with a strong grounding in the indigenous game. Like the boys from Wagga Wagga. Paul Kelly (AFL) and Laurie Daley (NRL), like many in the border region, played both games as kids and could have starred in either direction. With time, Slater, Johns, Thurston, Lockyer, Hayne and a host of others could have become household names in the AFL. But only with the background of Kelly and Daley. Not from a starting point in the mid-20s.

Folau's only 21, but he's left it too late from an instinct perspective. At best, he'll become a serviceable AFL player, worth the average going rate of around $300,000 a year for his on-field contributions.

So why is reported contract of around $1.2 million per year money well spent? Purely because of the trailblazing nature of the move.

Folau will go from being a league star to a mere mortal, but worth more than twice his NRL contract due to the long-term recruiting filter system. The money is not about what he will bring to Greater Western Sydney in terms of match stats, but in terms of western Sydney teenagers further down the track.

If a league superstar's switch can have an impact on a handful of other - particularly Polynesian - kids, then the AFL's production line has kicked up another gear.

Other AFL players need to realise this is the nature of the recruiting strategy. In AFL, Folau is no Ablett or Franklin. But in the big picture, he's worth more money than them.