AFL'S LUCK OF THE DRAW

Sport would be wonderfully transparent if one could predict the future. To have that innate ability to know how something was going to unfold would be an invaluable commoditity.

Especially when it comes to recruiting and, in the case of the AFL, the national draft.

In fact, football followers would find it intriguing to archive a copy of today's newspaper for a decade. Then, take another look at the class of 2009.

Names like Tom Scully, Jack Trengove, Dustin Martin and Anthony Morabito, as the top four selections, may well become modern legends of the game. Think Cazally, think Trengove. Mention Barassi, mention Morabito in the same breath. Maybe.

Then again, maybe it will be a case of comparing the virtues of James Hird and Shane Thorne. Both were overlooked at the top end of the draft by recruiting scouts around the country but, in the case, of Hird, pick number 79 in the 1990 draft proved little hindrance to carving out a magnificent career. Because, in the end, it matters nought as to the order of priority.

What is does do is highlight the difficulty in predicting the future for physically and emotionally raw teenagers, resulting in some embarrassment for those charged with the responsibility of drawing names to determine the future of their clubs.

Seventy-eight players were considered to be superior prospects to James Hird 19 years ago. Not too many of them won a couple of premierships, a Brownlow Medal, All Australian honors and club captaincy.

Statistics tell us that around 30 percent of the top 10 picks go on to play 200 AFL games. But the figure is not much different for those selected in rounds two and three. A bigger percentage of those picked will struggle to make the grade.

So while all eyes will be on number one pick Scully and his number two teammate Trengove over the next few years, there's every chance Shane Thorne, a 183cm forward from the Northern Territory, will outshine them both with the Western Bulldogs. Like Hird, his name came out in the 70s, but like those before him, he's been given a chance.

And when he turns up at training next week at the Whitten Oval or when he one day makes his senior debut, no one will be worrying about the number of his pick. Of more interest will be the number of his match statistics.